Grinding Markets Ahead

After this long, 9 year bull market which we have experienced, the equity markets don’t have to necessarily reverse to a protracted bear market; unless of course we experience a credit meltdown, asset bubble, global asset deflation [again] or other broad economic catastrophe. In fact, the correction we saw in October may occur a few (or even several) more times in the next few years after intermittent periods of again rising equity markets. Think of 1 month up and 1 month down for the next few years. Alternatively, the financial markets may just stay in a very tight trading range with daily swings of the indices up and down the same day and sometimes up and down two or three times during the same day, with no meaningful net progress up or deterioration down [I refer to this as a “choppy market”]. Another likely capital markets scenario is that the markets could experience abrupt sell offs with slow equity recoveries [This is what I refer to as a “grinding market”]. My belief is that there is a good chance we will experience a choppy or grinding market for the next few years. Many traders, including trend traders, swing traders or day traders can get “chewed up” in a grinding or choppy market, as they chase break outs, break downs, swings, momentum, with each time, the move that seems to be happening, is then stopping without warning, dead in its tracks, or reversing. Then frustrated traders begin vengeance trading (trading with aggression and desperation) to make their losses back, only to lose more money. Obviously, vengeance trading is the worst thing one can do. When an investor, trader or fund manager does not know whether to buy or sell, he/she should Hold; do nothing, until there are clear signals about how to proceed.

David N. Baker

By |2018-11-30T22:22:43+00:00November 30th, 2018|blog|0 Comments